Migracje w zlewni górnej Noteci

Abstract

The paper deals with population structure and migrations of a predominantly rural area situated within the sphere of influence of several externally located, large and middle-size cities, notably Bydgoszcz, Toruń and Włocławek. Basic demographic indices, such as population density, natural increase, death rate and spatial mobility for the region are close to the national averages. Population dynamics in the Basin are on the whole well balanced; the size of net out-migration has been approximately 0.5°/o of the total population per year, as compared to the natural increase of 1.1%. In 1974 urban places within the Basin showed a net gain of 1,289 migrants, and the rural areas a loss of 4,142 migrants. The degree of closure of migrations within the Basin amounted to a low figure of 0.31, which is explained by the fact that large portions of the Basin are contained within migration fields of Bydgoszcz and Toruń, and, to a lesser extent, of the more distant regional capitals, such as Poznań and Gdańsk, Rural-to-rural moves, enerally of a short range, represent however still the main component of migration patterns, accounting for two-fifth of all moves. Rural-to urban migrations are evenly distributed among small, medium-size and large cities. Urban-to-urban moves, which are more elastic with respect to distance, basically follow urban-size structure and the administrative hierarchy. Spatial pattern of commuting-to-work closely corresponds to migration patterns. This suggests that commuting often serves as a substitute to migration and tends to be followed by the chaoge of residence once housing becomes available closer to places of employment. It was also found that urban residents travel longer distances to bigger urban places, while destinations of trips to work and migrations originating in rural areas are more evenly distributed among small, medium- size and large urban places. Problems of future changes and planning relate to 1) the future role of the large adjacent cities, and 2) further growth in the intensity of agricultural production. The changing spatial patterns of the Upper Noteć Basin should be discussed in conjunction with the questions of the future size of Bydgoszcz-Toruń agglomeration. According to the existing spatial development plans, this agglomeration is expected to grow very rapidly over the next decades what may result in its extension toward the central part of the Basin and the merge with Inowrocław — its largest urban centre. As to the second point, it seems realistic to assume that the furtheer growth in the intensity of agriculture should not involve greater changes in the number of rural population, although it will definitely bring about serious changes in the occupational and family structures.