Rozwój systemu społeczno-politycznego w Polsce i współpraca z Zachodem: dotychczasowe tendencje i prognozy na lata osiemdziesiąte

Abstract

The article attempts at juddgement of roots of Polish crises taking the international conditioning into consideration. There are variants of forecasts for the eighties formulated, on the grounds of the observed tendencies in the aspect of evolution of social and economic system and the cooperation with the West. Two regressive „paths" are distinguished which require substantial curbing; of links with the West as well as two progressive ones implying further inflow of accumulation of outside from the West. The variant resting on the assumption of extrapolating main trends of seventies is considered by the author to be the most probable. It involves also the tendency of further structural hybridization without removing the main reasons of inefficiency of the economic system i.e. lack of correct political verification of macroeconomic decisions and lack of mechanism of optimum investment allocation and motivation system. There is also a forecasting variant presented which implies a reduction of social antagonisms by means of the national compromise providing facilities for a transition to the real national State organized according to the rules of inclusive socialism (including a society in the process of exercising political and economic power). These rules should capacitate creation of the new economic model different from the Hungarian and Yugoslavian ones, which in the opinion of the author, do not ensure a correct utilization of external and internal accumulation and are likely to induce crises. Yet, this forecasting variant (labelled the path 4) is considered by the author to be the least probable on account of the adverse structure of social powers and a lack of practical experience.