PRÓBA OSZACOWANIA PRZYSPIESZEŃ/OPOŹNIEŃ PROCESÓW PRYWATYZACJI PRZEDSIĘBIORSTW PAŃSTWOWYCH W OKRESIE 1991 - 1997

Abstract

Dynamics of privatisation processes has been evaluated assuming that the course of privatisation o f State owned enterprises - just as a majority o f „new” economic phenomenons - can be in a longer period described with a logistic curve with enough precision. Such a logistic curve expresses a hypothesis according to which a phenomenon strongly increases in its beginning, next it is still increasing but slower and slower and finally, after having reached a kind of „maturity” - phenomenon practically gets stable. More particularly - it is natural in such a moment that the rate of privatisation becomes slower after a certain timt. It results out of calculations made that if (logistic) course of privatisation continued to follow the rate and intensity from the period of the governments of T. Mazowiecki and H. Suchocka - the privatisation process of about 90 per cent of State owned enterprises should be achieved in practice already today. On the other hand - i f the privatisation process followed from its very beginning, i.e. from 1990, the rate and intensity known from the period of the W. Cimoszewicz government - real privatisation og 90 per cent of enterprises should be expected only until years 2030 - 2040. As a consequence of initial accelerations and next delays one can suppose that if average intensity of privatisation process from 1990 - 1997 was to be maintained - 90 per cent of enterprises in a majority o f sectors of national economy could be privatised only about 2005.