Nauka demografii a przyszła liczba ludności

Abstract

The significance of demographic sciences has been underlined in the article. The sciences acquire still more importance today. Forecasting questions should be the main subject of interests of those sciences. The narrow ideas of some scientists had to be emphasized that the earth could feed population about 10-13 times more numerous than at present. All the opinions, according to the author, that are based on „uncompetent optimism" (a notion formulated by D. M. Gwissiani — Member of the Soviet Academy of Sciences), should be rejected. It can be assumed on the ground of modern trends in reproductiveness and mortality that the crude natural growth rate will approximate zero at the end of the 21st century. It means stabilization of the earth's population at the level of 13 milliards people on the turn of the 21st century. It should be mentioned here that the earth's resources allow to increase production of foodstuffs and of other means of population's maintenance at the level adequate to human standards about 3 times. It fully suits the triple growth of the earth's population.