Warianty perspektywicznej strategii cenowej krajów naftowych

Abstract

Perspectives of the world oil market areclosely related to the possible tendencies of price ruling of that natural resource. To describe it, the author constructs a system considering all the main elements subject to changes in time, which are essentially related to the ruling of oil prices. Pricing strategies of the oil states are adopted as the initial variable. Its variants can be specified on the grounds of the formulated subsystems of independent and dependent variables. The first of subsystems comprises features relatively unchanged over time and common for all the states-producers of oil. The maeroeconomic target of the oil states economies is considered here as well as the long-run target in their export sectors and stimulating functions of price variables. This subsystem is supplemented by the conditions limiting free price-ruling within the framework of certain stimulating functions. The second subsystem considères the effect of three categories of determinants: internal (relations of export incomes to expenditures of the oil states, acquired level of productive forces in those states, conditions for realization of the accelerated economic development, freedom to „manipulate" resources), external ones (relation of demand to oil supply) and correcting (quality of oil, transport distance, extra economic factors, the volume of demand aparat of main oil importers). They constitute proper criteria of variating procedure. Defining the probability of appearance of one of the presented variants in practice and its effect on the level of oil prices requires a permanent observation of changes in the respective analysed factors and taking account of them. And that is the premise adopted by the author of the article.