WSKAŹNIKI MONETARNE A INFLACJA W POLSCE W LATACH 1999-2003

Abstract

Linkages between inflation and various monetary aggregates and other instruments of monetary policy are a basic subject of central banks’ attention. This article aims at answering the question, whether in the period of direct inflation targeting, being a strategy for monetary policy in Poland, the shifts in instruments of monetary policy and monetary aggregates were a cause for shifts in core inflation and inflation measured by CPI. Central bank interest rates (such as lombard rate, reference rate, rediscount rate and refinancing rate), reserve requirements, open market operations and monetary aggregates MO, Ml, M2 and M3 have been brought under study. It has been decided to measure the influence of these instruments on the three core inflation measures (15% trimmed mean, core inflation excluding most volatile prices and core inflation excluding most volatile prices and fuel prices) and on CPI. According to our results, shifts in interest rates levels are generally reflected in the inflation level after 3 or 4 quarters. Reserve requirements ratios influence CPI to a much lesser degree and do not influence measures of underlying inflation at all. Open market operations have no impact on inflation either. As far as monetary aggregates are concerned, it is visible that only the widest measures of money supply affect inflation.