Modelowanie procesów ekonomicznych w warunkach dezaktualizacji informacji

Abstract

The article is devoted to econometric modelling of economic phenomenae interrelations in a situation when statistical data being the basis for modelling are becoming out of date in process of time. The article presents a concept of creating econometric model (choice of describing variables and assessing parameters) which would attribute lesser weight to statistical data of earlier periods of time, while more weight to the data originating in periods closer to the present time. The idea can be summarized as multiplying initial information proportionally to numbers of respective units of time. The proposed concept was applied in construction of the econometric model explaining formation of dynamics of total animal output of Polish agriculture in the years 1965 - 1982.